Former Long Position - CAM
Action number references are to actions shown
on the Action History Chart at the bottom of the page.
Step number references are to Tutorial Steps.
If you need help with terminology refer back to that Step of the Tutorial or the
FAQs associated with that Step.
Note: All values discussed prior to 12/16/05 in the text below do not
reflect the 2 for 1 split.
We added this one to the portfolio because we like the looks of both
the Configuration and Action History charts, it has a nice low Risk Corridor,
and the upside to the historic high ($82 in September, 2000) is over 78%. It
looks to us that if CAM breaks through a $49 barrier, the upside could be real
sweet.
Action 1) - 5/16/04:
Step #1 - NYSE registers a Stage 3 - Bull Market.
 Step #3 - CAM flashes a Buy Configuration Signal
(click on Configuration
Chart, to the right). We execute the Buy. Initial Sell-Stop is established off the
valley-bottom resistance points which are below the 30wk moving average. Risk
Corridor is a comfortable 11.8% (see Action History Chart, below. Also, see
our 6/27/04 Observation, below).
Action 2) - 6/27/04:
Step #4 - The third subsequent ascending close confirms a
valley-bottom at 6/4/04 ($44.64) which we rounded down to $44 to establish a new
Sell-stop level (see Action History Chart, below). As the 6/4/04 valley-bottom
was below the 30wk moving average, we will await the next valley-bottom to
form to trigger our next Sell-stop move.
Observation - Yes, we do err on occasion. In adjusting the Action
History Chart, we noticed that the initial Sell-stop line on the graphic
portion of the chart has been reporting at $43, even though the text and our
official monitoring position was from a Sell-stop of $41. Thus, we have
adjusted the graphic portion of the chart accordingly. Technically, the
initial Sell-stop could have been established at $43 - that is, $43.90 at
3/26/04 did meet the criteria of a valley-bottom at the time of the Buy.
However, that would have given us a Risk Corridor of only 6.6% - a level we
consider too thin to provide for adequate wiggle-room for a new portfolio
entrant. So, we did the right thing by setting the initial stop at $41 but we
should have explained it at the time. Our apologies . . .
Action 3) - 9/5/04:
Step #4 - A valley-bottom at 8/6/04 & 8/13/04 is confirmed as
the third subsequent increase in price which occurs as of market close on
9/3/04. Since the 8/13 valley-bottom is above the 30wk moving average, we
adjust the Sell-Stop to the 30wk level at $47. From this point forward,
Sell-Stops are adjusted upward in $1 increments in tandem with the 30wk (see
Action History Chart, below).
Actions 4) through 5):
Step #4 - Sell-Stop adjustments in tandem with the 30wk moving
average (see Action History Chart, below):
4) 9/26/04: 30wk = $48.04 rounded down to $48
5) 10/22/04: 30wk = $49.21 rounded down to $49
Action 6) - 10/31/04:
Step #2 - CAM closed at $48.35 on Friday, October 29. Since this is
below our Sell-stop level of $49 this represents a Sell-stop violation. As
this is our first Sell-stop violation with CAM (i.e., Strike One), we
Sell half of our position. This transaction results in a gain/positive ROI of
5.5%, locking-in an annualized rate of return of 11.8% on the closed portion
of the position which is realizable for 2004. Half of our original position is still alive (see Action
History Chart, below).
Observation - 11/14/04:
During the week of 11/8/04, CAM closed under the $49 Sell-stop on three
occasions (Monday 11/8 @ $47.95, Tuesday 11/9 @ $48.21, and Thursday 11/11 @
$48.68). Yet, we did not consider this a Sell-stop violation - Why? Because we
stick to the weekly process. We do not pay any attention to the stock price
fluctuations during the week. We focus only on the Friday closing price - in
this case: Friday 11/12 @ $50.52 - which is above the Sell-stop level -
so, this week, we continue to hold (see Action
History Chart, below).
Actions 7) through 11):
Step #4 - Sell-Stop adjustments in tandem with the 30wk moving
average (see Action History Chart, below):
7) 12/12/04: 30wk = $50.14 rounded down to $50
8) 1/2/05: 30wk = $51 (no rounding required)
9) 2/6/05: 30wk = $52.23 rounded down to $52
10) 3/6/05: 30wk = $53.31 rounded down to $53
11) 4/3/05: 30wk = $54.06 rounded down to $54
Action 12) - 4/17/05:
Step #2 - CAM closed at $53.73 on Friday, April 15. Since this is
below our Sell-stop level of $54 this represents a Sell-stop violation. As
this is our second Sell-stop violation with CAM (i.e., Strike Two), we
Sell half of our remaining position. This transaction results in a gain/positive ROI of
17.5%, locking-in an annualized rate of return of 18.7% on this portion
of the closed position which is realizable for 2005. One-fourth of our original position is still alive (see Action
History Chart, below).
Actions 13) through 27):
Step #4 - Sell-Stop adjustments in tandem with the 30wk moving
average (see Action History Chart, below):
13) 5/29/05: 30wk = $55.01 rounded down to $55
14) 6/19/05: 30wk = $56.15 rounded down to $56
15) 7/10/05: 30wk = $57.36 rounded down to $57
16) 7/24/05: 30wk = $58.19 rounded down to $58
17) 8/7/05: 30wk = $59.43 rounded down to $59
18) 8/14/05: 30wk = $60 (no rounding required)
19) 9/4/05: 30wk = $61.40 rounded down to $61
20) 9/18/05: 30wk = $62.43 rounded down to $62
21) 10/2/05: 30wk = $63.35 rounded down to $63
22) 10/16/05: 30wk = $64.35 rounded down to $64
23) 10/23/05: 30wk = $65.19 rounded down to $65
24) 11/13/05: 30wk = $66.42 rounded down to $66
25) 11/20/05: 30wk = $67.17 rounded down to $67
26) 11/27/05: 30wk = $68 (no rounding required)
27) 12/11/05: 30wk = $69.75 rounded down to $69
One-fourth of our original position is still alive (see Action
History Chart, below).
Action 28) - 12/18/05:
12/16/05 - 2 for 1 Split: All values adjusted accordingly
Step #4 - Sell-Stop adjustments in tandem with the 30wk moving
average (see Action History Chart, below):
28) 12/18/05: 30wk = $35.28 rounded down to $35
Actions 29) through 38):
Step #4 - Sell-Stop adjustments in tandem with the 30wk moving
average (see Action History Chart, below):
29) 1/1/06: 30wk = $36.09 rounded down to $36
30) 1/15/06: 30wk = $37.11 rounded down to $37
31) 1/29/06: 30wk = $38.26 rounded down to $38
32) 2/12/06: 30wk = $39.11 rounded down to $39
33) 3/19/06: 30wk = $40.05 rounded down to $40
34) 4/16/06: 30wk = $41.28 rounded down to $41
35) 4/30/06: 30wk = $42.19 rounded down to $42
36) 5/14/06: 30wk = $43.39 rounded down to $43
37) 5/28/06: 30wk = $44.20 rounded down to $44
38) 6/18/06: 30wk = $45.07 rounded down to $45
Action 39) - 6/25/06:
Step #2 - CAM closed at $44.84 on Friday, June 23. Since this is
below our Sell-stop level of $45 this represents a Sell-stop violation. As
this is our third Sell-stop violation with CAM (i.e., Strike Three), we
Sell the entire remaining balance of our position. This transaction results in a gain/positive ROI of
95.6%, locking-in an annualized rate of return of 45.3% on this portion
of the closed position which is realizable for 2006 (see Action
History Chart, below).
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