Former Long Position -
NOC
Step numbers referenced below are referring to
Tutorial Steps.
If you need help with terminology refer back to that Step of the Tutorial or the
FAQs associated with that Step.
Note: All values (except those on the Configuration
Chart) have been adjusted for the
2 for 1 stock split which occurred on 6/22/04
We added this one to the portfolio because we like the looks of both
the Configuration and Action History charts, it has a nice low Risk Corridor,
the upside to the historic high ($69.50 in February, 1998) is over 40%, and from a
general logic standpoint -- looking at world events -- can this be a bad time to
own a piece of a major U.S. weapons maker?
Action 1) - 8/31/03:
Step #1 - NYSE registers a Stage 3 - Bull Market.
 Step #3 - NOC flashes a Buy Configuration Signal
(click on Configuration
Chart, to the right). We execute the Buy. Initial Sell-Stop is established off the
valley-bottom resistance points which are below the 30wk moving average. Risk
Corridor is a comfortable 11.0% (see Action History Chart, below).
Observation 11/2/03:
Step #4 - Our Sell-Stop levels have been reconfirmed as recent
prices tested our $42.50 initial limit. No Sell-Stop
adjustment action required until confirmation of next valley-bottom (see
Action History Chart, below).
Action 2) - 1/11/04:
Step #4 - While a new valley-bottom has not appeared, this stock has
broken through the $47.50 level which had previously served as an upside
resistance point and the weekly closing price for the been above the 30wk for
eleven consecutive weeks. Thus, we adjust
the Sell-Stop to the 30wk level at $45. From this point forward, Sell-Stops
are adjusted upward in $1 increments in tandem with the 30wk (see Action
History Chart, below).
Actions 3) through 12):
Step #4 - Sell-Stop adjustments in tandem with the 30wk moving
average (see Action History Chart, below):
3) 1/18/04: 30wk = $45.595 rounded down to $45.50*
4) 2/1/04: 30wk = $46.005 rounded down to $46
5) 2/22/04: 30wk = $46.77 rounded down to $46.50*
6) 3/7/04: 30wk = $47.04 rounded down to $47
7) 5/2/04: 30wk = $47.925 rounded down to $47.50* (this action could have
been taken on April 25th)
8) 5/9/04: 30wk = $48.16 rounded down to $48
9) 5/23/04: 30wk = $48.605 rounded down to $48.50*
10) 6/6/04: 30wk = $49.08 rounded down to $49
11) 6/20/04: 30wk = $49.53 rounded down to $49.50*
12) 7/11/04: 30wk = $50.24 rounded down to $50
13) 8/15/04: 30wk = $51
* Note that as a result of accounting for the 2 for 1 stock
split on 6/22/04, the $1 increments became $.50 increments.
Action 14) - 8/22/04:
Step #1 - NYSE registers a Stage 5 - Bear Market
 Step
#2 - NOC flashes a Sell Configuration Signal as the 5wk moving average
passes downward through the 15wk, indicating it is too risky to continue to
hold (click on Configuration Chart, to the right). We execute a Sell on our
entire position. The transaction provides for a 7.7% gain which is equivalent
to a 7.9% Annualized Rate of Return.
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